This week, we review developments shaping the global logistics landscape, from changes in global trade policy to shifting freight rates and capacity.

Key developments include an evolving global trade outlook, upcoming UK carbon border charges, ocean schedule reliability, air freight capacity, and growing Eurotunnel truck traffic.

  • 5 min

Current Position | Weekly Briefing October 7th - October 13th

The Expeditors Podcast

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You're listening to Current Position, a weekly briefing from Expeditors mapping the shifts across trade compliance, regulatory changes, and global supply chains.

I'm Chris Parker, and here's the latest from October 7th to October 13th. 

Global Customs & Trade Market

• The World Trade Organization (WTO) raised its 2026 merchandise trade growth forecast to 3.9%, driven by AI-related goods. Reuters reports the forecast jumped two percentage points from 1.9% in March. Much of this growth is based on trade in semiconductors and AI data-center products, which is already up 67% year on year. Middle East merchandise imports and exports are projected to fall 15.4% and 17.2%. Read more.

• Importers to the United Kingdom must begin paying carbon border charges as of January 1, 2027. UK CBAM covers multiple products like aluminum, cement, fertilizer, hydrogen, iron, and steel. Liability for these fees will fall to the importer named on the customs declaration. Importers must register once CBAM goods reach 50,000 pounds in 12 months. Read more.

• U.S. Customs and Border Protection launched the third phase of the CAPE refund system last week. This phase of the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries or CAPE refund system covers “finally liquidated entries filed by plaintiffs for which the Court has ordered reliquidation.” Read more. 

Global Ocean Market

• On-time performance for carriers out of Asia continued to plummet in September. Routes moving out of Asia to Europe declined to just 4% on-time and averaged just shy of a 10-day delay over the published transit. The Far East-Europe trade lane has not seen on-time performance that low since it hit 3% following the pandemic in September 2021. Asia-to-North America routes fared better but still hit a poor 20% on time rate, with delays increasing to almost 7 days. Read more.

• Far East to Europe spot rates keep sliding as tender season gets under way. Xeneta reports spot rates are down 43% to the Mediterranean and 34% to North Europe, with last week’s averages floating around $4,000 and $3,600 per FEU. Experts say the pace of decline has slowed but continues to trend downward, meaning they have not yet hit the floor for that trade lane. Read more.  

Global Air Market

• International air capacity in and out of Saudi Arabia dropped by one third this week after the attack at Riyadh airport. Reports in The Loadstar show capacity at Riyadh specifically dropped 99% across all airlines with Emirates, Qatar, Etihad and Saudi Cargo all suspending flights through Week 42. Etihad and Saudi’s JED and DMM services remain operational, though occasional cancellations are impacting capacity and transit times. Some airlines have also turned to cross-border trucking solutions for shipment movement. Expeditors team is also working with customers to provide solutions to keep freight moving. Read more.

• Air rates from China cooled over Golden Week as demand softened. The Freightos Air Index shows China to North America rates dropped 18% to $5.60 per kg, while China to Europe eased 7% to $3.83 per kg. Other trade lanes, such as North Europe to North America, saw slight increases. Data-center components remain a significant driver of global demand growth. Read more.

• Cargo capacity in and out of Buenos Aires (EZE) Airport will be restricted Oct. 25-Nov. 11 as the runway undergoes repairs. The repairs will result in temporary operational restrictions and a 40-ton takeoff payload limit. The repairs will create a significant reduction in widebody passenger aircraft cargo capacity. Freighter operations are expected to continue, while additional freighter capacity ex-Miami and Europe is also being deployed to support demand. Read more. 

Global Ground Transport Market

• Eurotunnel truck traffic rose 8% in September despite record UK diesel. The LeShuttle Freight operates roll‑on/roll‑off (RoRo) freight shuttles that move road freight between the UK and mainland Europe via the Channel Tunnel. The service carried over 102,000 trucks in September, following gains of 4% in July and 5% in August. UK diesel reached a record 199.52 pound per liter in week 41 making the service even more attractive. Read more. 

You are now at our current position. Links to everything we covered today, plus some extra articles of interest, are in the show notes.

And while you're there, check out the events and webinars we flagged for the weeks ahead. Thank you for listening, and we'll see you next week.

Be sure to subscribe to your preferred podcast platform so you don't miss future episodes. To learn more about Expeditors, you can find us on LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, and X, or simply visit us at expeditors.com. Take care, and I'll see you next time!