• 15 min

Current Position | Weekly Briefing August 19th - 25th

The Expeditors Podcast

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You're listening to Current Position, a weekly briefing from Expeditors mapping the shifts across trade compliance, regulatory changes, and global supply chains. Plus some market insights from our Senior Vice President of Global Air, Karl Francisco.

I'm Chris Parker, and here's the latest from August 19th to August 25th. 

Global Customs & Trade Market

The U.S. government plans to implement extended sanctions against Iran to put pressure on the country, while Iran promises to retaliate. “Operation Economic Outcast,” as the initiative is being called by the U.S. Department of Treasury, is aimed at cutting off Iran’s global economic advantages. The goal of this effort is to put pressure on Iran to end months of conflict and to relinquish control over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and Oman, meanwhile, have launched plans to keep control over the Strait.

As negotiations with Canada failed over the weekend, the Trump Administration moved forward with 50% tariffs on $20 billion worth of Canadian products. The tariffs are being implemented under Section 338 and will impact items such as steel, aluminum, autos and lumber. Trade negotiations had been extended from the original implementation date of Aug. 18 in hopes an agreement could be reached, but it was not.

Canada has announced retaliatory tariffs on $19.94 billion worth of United States goods, matching dollar-for-dollar new duties imposed by Washington. The counter-tariffs take effect on U.S. goods from Sept. 8 and will impose duties of 15%, 25% and 50% across 700 products. The Canadian government, meanwhile, has unveiled financial support for Canadian businesses impacted by the escalating trade war.

Global Ocean Market

Exceptionally low Rhine water is triggering new inland transport fees and severe capacity constraints. Carriers have reported reduced barge capacity, congestion, longer terminal dwell times, and higher operating costs across the Rhine and other European rivers. Some carriers have introduced an inland emergency fee as shippers compete for limited barge, rail, and trucking alternatives. These conditions have been created by heat waves across Europe this summer.

Low water levels are having impacts beyond Europe, creating a choke on ocean movement. The Panama Canal Authority has also reduced the number of vessel transits allowed per day starting in September. Originally, the authority had communicated that it expected to increase draft allowances for larger vessels. By the middle of September, capacity will be reduced to 32 daily transits.

Global Air Market

Changes to the European Union’s de minimis rules went into place 6 weeks ago and have impacted the flow of goods into most major airports. In July, the European Union (EU) suspended its de minimis rule, which applied to parcels worth less than €150 (approximately $175). It replaced that exemption with a flat-rate customs duty of €3 per item on goods imported from outside the EU. The US saw a similar impact to air and cross-border traffic when it removed its de minimis exemption for goods valued at less than $800 in August 2025.

Global air cargo tonnage fell 5% as summer progressed and less people were traveling globally. Data from WorldACD showed Europe and Asia Pacific volume fell 6%, while Central and South America grew 2% thanks to flower exports. Even though fuel costs continued to rise, pricing held near $2.97/kg.

Global Ground Transport Market

Multiple U.S. states saw a small victory last week in their effort to block the U.S. government from accessing commercial driver records. A federal judge granted a temporary restraining order to prevent the Trump administration from accessing almost 17 million commercial drivers' records. This coalition of states filed suit against three U.S. entities, while at the same time, similar legal action has been filed against the Department of Homeland Security. The Trump administration is seeking the records to support commercial driving regulation enforcement.

Germany is considering a freight-focused approach to prioritizing road and bridge repairs. Congestion issues cost Germany an estimated €5.3 billion in 2025, with drivers losing an average of 47 hours in traffic. More than 8,000 motorway bridge structures also require modernization. A proposed Economic Reach Index would weigh freight volumes, journey reliability and supply-chain importance, alongside structural conditions when deciding which corridors to repair first.

Dutch truck-toll costs will jump roughly 32% when a temporary discount ends in January. A Euro 6 diesel truck above 32 tonnes will move from €0.156/km to over €0.2/km starting January 2027. For 10,000 tolled kilometers, that equates to an additional €500, requiring carriers and shippers to revisit 2027 lane pricing and surcharges.

Up next, Senior Vice President of Global Air, Karl Francisco.

Chris Parker: Hey, Karl. How are you?

Karl Francisco: I'm doing great, Chris. Glad to be here again.

Chris Parker: Good to have you again. Same question I'm gonna start with as I've done every other week before: uh, what is on your mind this week?

Karl Francisco: Yeah, you know, here we are. We're about midway in quarter three, twenty twenty-six, and a lot of customers are concerned about what to expect in terms of peak season capacity and peak season demand. It's our position not to predict the future because we don't really know what's gonna happen. And, uh, the only thing we can do is try and look at what happened in the past, and hopefully that might be some indication of what might be happening in the future, right? And we can take a look at, you know, what happened recently.

Chris Parker: Yeah. I guess, what has the past told us before?

Karl Francisco: Yeah. So the data in the air market, uh, tends to come out rather slow. It takes a while to access all of the data in the marketplace. So we have data up until May of twenty twenty-six...

Chris Parker: Was it 18, 19% increase, you said?

Karl Francisco: That’s correct.

Chris Parker: What is driving that? And something that I’m curious about too is, you know, Adam, being from Ocean, mentioned this situation around empty containers coming back to Asia to keep the flow of goods going. Anything like that happen to the air market at all?

Karl Francisco: Yeah. Well, the exports out of Asia Pacific continues to be strong...

Chris Parker: Now, the, uh, goods coming from South Asia into Europe, that taking a dip... Is that bound to happen for Europe as well?

Karl Francisco: Yeah. We’re not really sure. The decisions, uh, that went into what made the US change the way e-com imports into the US is rather different from Europe...

Chris Parker: When it comes to situations like that, I mean, maybe there’s no precedent for it, but what has history taught us before around something like this, if anything?

Karl Francisco: If we look back at what’s happened with the e-com industry, they’re rather good as far as finding ways to continue to ship products out of China, Hong Kong...

Chris Parker: You said there’s some solid strength in some areas. What areas around the world or what markets around the world are not so hot right now, you think?

Karl Francisco: Yeah. Again, Asia Pacific demand to North America was up for the first five months by about 37%...

Chris Parker: What are the most concerning things for you?

Karl Francisco: Well, I would say that, again, if you look at the industry that’s doing well in airfreight, the hyperscale of the AI industries is leading the pack...

Chris Parker: Now, for, uh, customers of ours or just any organizations out there within those verticals, in those spaces and segments, what should they be thinking about?

Karl Francisco: That’s a great question. I think if you are shipping out of Southeast Asia, primarily out of Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, as well as Taiwan, I would be concerned with the limited amount of capacity that we expect to see for the remainder of this year...

Chris Parker: Anything else on your mind before we close?

Karl Francisco: No, I think just stay close with your providers and make sure that you have a good feel for what’s taking place, especially in those hot markets, and, uh, protect the space that you need. And don’t wait till the last minute because it’s going to go rather quickly.

Chris Parker: Yeah. Forecast, forecast, forecast.

Karl Francisco: Forecast, forecast. That’s correct.

Chris Parker: Cool. Thanks so much, Karl.

Karl Francisco: All right. Thanks, Chris.

You are now at our current position. Links to everything we covered today, plus some extra articles of interest, are in the show notes.

And while you’re there, check out the events and webinars we flagged for the weeks ahead. Thank you for listening, and we’ll see you next week.

Be sure to subscribe to your preferred podcast platform so you don't miss future episodes. To learn more about Expeditors, you can find us on LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, and X, or simply visit us at expeditors.com. Take care, and I'll see you next time!