Welcome to Onyx Strategic Insights' 2024 outlook, where you will find our assessment of the year ahead, focused on the macroeconomic forecasts, geopolitical shocks, and coverage of notable elections occurring this year. Onyx Strategic Insights is a division of Expeditors that helps companies build strategy and manage risk through the lens of geopolitics and macroeconomics.
Download the 2024 outlook here, to read our coverage in detail.
Our global outlook in a nutshell:
- Slow growth and high recession risk. Global economic growth will be below average for several years, as key markets suffer from weaker domestic demand. The EU and China, in particular, are more vulnerable in 2024 than the U.S. appears at this stage.
- Inflation easing, goods prices still elevated. Year over year price increases are normalizing, however interest rates will stay higher for longer. Basic goods prices are still elevated in most markets compared to pre-COVID.
- ESG disclosure regulations. Companies will be pressured to reposition supply chains to achieve ESG goals, as a wave of regulations is coming.
- Major elections in critical regions. With 60% of global GDP holding elections, 2024 is shaping up as the biggest year in history. Civil unrest is a concern in some countries.
- Geopolitical fault lines remain active. Some conflicts are trending toward escalation, while others are set to remain in the status quo in the near future.
What it means:
- Economically, this year is a turning point: bringing down inflation is a top concern, which still raises the risk of a recession. Wages and input costs remain high currently.
- As companies look to de-risk supply chains, they are evaluating reducing risk in one area while contending with the introduction of new sources of risks in other areas.
- Continued and looming geopolitical flare-ups put a premium on risk management. Supply chains remain exposed to the impact of regional hot spots.