Supply chains continue to adjust as new developments create both challenges and uncertainty across global markets. Senior Vice President of Global Ocean, Adam Kord, joins the conversation to share updates on ocean freight, including capacity and the potential impact of Section 301 port fees.

  • 15 min

Current Position | Weekly Briefing October 21st - 27th

The Expeditors Podcast

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You're listening to Current Position, a weekly briefing from Expeditors mapping the shifts across trade compliance, regulatory changes, and global supply chains, plus some market insights from our Senior Vice President of Global Ocean, Adam Kord.

I'm Chris Parker, and here's the latest from October 21st to October 27th. 

Global Customs & Trade Market

• The UK's HMRC, or His Majesty’s Revenue & Customs, has published its carbon border tax rulebook ahead of CBAM launching on the first of January 2027. CBAM is a carbon tax on imported aluminum, cement, fertilizer, hydrogen, iron, and steel. The rulebook includes illustrative rates, draft default emission values, and producer guidance. Importers will be liable for the tax and registration once the importers' CBAM goods reach £50,000 over 12 months. Read more.

• China has proposed export controls on 40 technologies and will require authorization for certain drone items beginning the 18th of November. China's Ministry of Science and Technology proposed restricting 23 AI-related, five biomedical and 12 photovoltaic technologies. Beginning in November, specified drones, components, software and technologies will require export authorization. Read more. 

Global Ocean Market

• Record volumes on the U.S. west coast have turned into backlogs, as a strike by a small number of port workers is possible next week. As of this week, more than 35,000 containers were waiting to be loaded to on-dock trains across Los Angeles and Long Beach ports. Almost 11,000 of those containers had been waiting up to nine days, according to The Dwell. At the same time, a strike by 250 watchmen could halt operations at many of the Long Beach terminals Nov. 1. While port watchmen workers represent a small percentage of the ILWU, they support a large portion of Long Beach and a little more than 30 percent of Los Angeles’ cargo. Read more.

• Asia–US and Asia–Europe container rates are deviating further as demand supports European rates despite the Red Sea return. According to Xeneta, Asia–North Europe spot rates rose 6.8% per FEU last week and Mediterranean rates 5.8%. These numbers show a reversal of the steady decline that has been seen since July when services began to return via the Red Sea. Meanwhile, Far East to Europe volumes were up 12.2% in the first seven months of 2026. Read more.

• Marine insurance premiums grew 5.5% to $42.6 billion in 2025, but the International Union of Marine Insurance says the market remains soft. Cargo premiums rose 6.9% buoyed by Chinese high-value exports. Ocean hull premiums rose 9.4% to $10.5 billion due to fleet growth and war premiums. Read more. 

Global Air Market

• Shippers in and around Shenzhen should make plans in advance of the 33rd APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting. The event is set for Nov. 17-19 and is expected to have an impact on logistics in the area. Security will be heightened during APEC week not only around the event venue but also at Shenzhen (SZX) airport. Most cargo operations at SZX are expected to be suspended or significantly reduced during the control period Nov. 16-20. Read more.

• Air cargo volumes rebounded 2% week on week as Asian exports restarted after Golden Week, with rates up 4%. WorldACD data shows Asia Pacific chargeable weight jumped 9% in week 42, with tonnage to Europe up 13% and to the USA up 10%. Pricing is up almost 30% year on year, and Asia Pacific–USA volume is 14% above last year on AI-related traffic. Read more. 

Global Ground Transport Market

• Italy has approved €105.2 million in support for hauliers after blockades in the south disrupted fuel and production. The package includes €45.2 million in tax credits for diesel bought between March and August 2026. Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has promised tougher action against illegal blockades. Disruption continues in Campania and around Gela, and a nationwide general strike is planned for the 30th of October. Read more.  

• Road freight insolvencies are rising by double digits in the Netherlands and Romania. Trans.Info reports 75 Dutch road freight companies were declared bankrupt in the first half of 2026, up more than 44% year on year. The Dutch government plans no further fuel tax cuts, citing a temporary 22.3% cut in the truck kilometer charge and a planned diesel duty extension through 2027. In Romania, road freight insolvencies rose 73% in September, with more pressure expected in early 2027. Read more.

Up next, Senior Vice President of Global Ocean, Adam Kord. 

The following discussion could include forward-looking statements. Of course, actual results may differ materially because of various risks and uncertainties. We are not obligated to update these statements, and we rarely do so. Instead, we refer you to our most recent SEC filings for more information about the risk factors that could affect our future results.

Chris Parker: Welcome back, Adam. It has been a f- long three weeks or so since we've last had you on. Um, where have you been? What's going on?

Adam Kord: Well, over those three weeks, I just got back this weekend from a, uh, long tour in Asia. I was in Korea, I was in Taiwan, I was in China, I was in Singapore, meeting with carriers for reviews, doing town halls with our offices, spoke at a few conferences. So I've been all over. It was, it was, uh, it was good. It was an exciting few weeks.

Chris Parker: Anything of note?

Adam Kord: Uh, well, it was almost a little bit more exciting because, I had to make some travel adjustments on the way home with a stop in the Philippines versus Taiwan because yet again, another typhoon Uh, this past weekend, Typhoon Champi closed the Taiwan ports, so closed the ports in Kaohsiung and Taichung and Keelung. Uh, it was Category 3, which means that the wind speeds were between about 110 and 130 miles an hour. But luckily there was not a lot of damage, and, uh, it started heading north through Japan. And it's downgraded as a tropical depression. But as I've mentioned on past podcasts, you know, one of the reasons why the export market from Asia has just been a mess over the past few months- is because there's just been so many disruptions from typhoons.

Um, when I was in Shanghai, luckily I'd saw that, you know, a lot of that backup and a lot of that congestion had started to dissipate. Uh, you know, at one point there was, you know, uh, 200 vessels between Shanghai and Ningbo waiting to be unloaded, and that was down to just to about, uh, 25, 30. Uh, so I think we were worried that, um, not only, you know, for the, for the safety and just the, you know, the tragic behaviors that these typhoons can cause, that we would also see that that build back up. But it doesn't look like that's gonna be the case, so- um, knock on wood, let's hope that typhoon season in the north, uh, comes to an end soon and monsoon season to the south, uh, doesn't, doesn't hit us that hard either.

Chris Parker: Brutal nonetheless, though.

Adam Kord: Yep. And, and as, as long as I'm, uh, talking about, about China, so also received some news this morning, uh, that the Section 301 port fees, and just to remind the audience, so these are fees that the, uh, US Trade Representatives, the USTR, enacted, uh, with the Trump administration in October of 2025. It's an action that was, you know, they were taking it to, in contrary to, uh, China shipbuilding subsidies. So these were basically fees that the government is assessing to, one, if you're an ocean operator and you have a Chinese-owned vessel in your fleet calling on a US port, there was going to be fees and penalties, and if you were just an operator.

Even it doesn't even matter if you were using a Chinese vessel or not, but if you're a Chinese-owned operator, so the example would be if you were COSCO or Double O as an example, which are two larger Chinese carriers, you would pay a fee. So they were to be enacted in October of '25, and they were, after about a month, uh, there was a 365-day pause on November 9th. So the fees were gonna come back into play, um, November 9th of, of this year. And it was just announced this morning that they were going to take a further pause while China and, uh, the US continue to, to negotiate on various terms. So right now, they've been suspended until January, 9th.

Um, and again, uh, those fees, just so we can... It's kinda tough to put the exact number on what those fees would be, but they are pretty costly because it's, it's based on the weights of those vessels. But averages of averages, if it's a Chinese-built vessel, it was gonna be about $350 per container additional. And if you were a Chinese operator, that would be an additional about $120 on top of that. So anywhere from $120 to as high as $470 additional a container. So we're gonna continue to watch that really close. See, as we've talked in our past podcasts, of, you know, additional fees could alter, you know, how carriers and operators, you know, what assets they use, if they have to move those around. And again, with the potential date being January 9th, that's just before Lunar New Year. So Chinese New Year this year is, uh, February 6th, and also this year it is the Year of the Fire Goat. Which sound, sounds pretty awesome, but actually it could be the Year of the Ram or Year of the Large Sheep, but it's called Fire Goat, which is awesome nonetheless. So that's what's been going on with me.

Chris Parker: So I'm curious to know, when announcements like this happen, like, just this morning, like breaking news kind of stuff, had work been done to anticipate these fees, and what does that do to the operators, to the carriers, uh, to the shippers when announcements like this happen, and it's like, "Well, you don't have to worry about," or it's on pause for at least a couple months or so?

Adam Kord: Yeah, great question. So there's a few things. Uh, one of the things that the majority of the carrier community has done, um, there clearly are a lot of vessels that are manufactured in China. The two largest global manufacturers of container vessels happen in Korea and happen in China. China, the order book has been, has been ramping up pretty rapidly. They're doing a lot more manufacturing.

So what happened over this past year, if you're a carrier, and you have a fleet that's combined with, uh, you know, uh, Korean-manufactured vessels, uh, Chinese-manufactured vessels, maybe a few Japanese-manufactured vessels sprinkled in there- what you've done is you have, uh, reallocated your fleet, and you've probably tried to pull as many Chinese vessels out of the US trades. Trades from Europe to the US, from the US back to Asia, places like that. Why? Because if something was to happen, and these fees were going to come up, you did not wanna have to pay that.  Because those fees are ultimately gonna be passed on to your customers, or they're going to be, you know, absorbed. That's gonna hurt your profitability, so the best way to do it is to remove those assets. Um-

Chris Parker: And there's a cost to that, right? Like, there's a cost to make those adjustments

Adam Kord: And there's a cost involved right now, yeah. Right. Um, and, and right now, as we've talked in the past, just because of congestion from Asia, uh, rates, are really high right now. And it's because, uh, there's a lot of capacity that's tied up. So one thing that we could see now with this delay, you might see a few carriers really quickly, you know, move some of these Chinese-manufactured vessels into a place to help clear out backlog in the form of a sweeper vessel, right? To, to do that really quick. But my guess is, you know, between now and January 9th, uh, depending on what happens with negotiations, you'll see more and more, uh, Chinese vessels moved away. and replaced with, with newer vessels that are coming into the trade, just to avoid that impact.

Chris Parker: And then with Chinese New Year coming up, uh, early February, we've got these, uh, these fees could be coming back, uh, ear- early January. I mean, it's a game of will they, won't they, right? Uh, up until then. And it could even happen then too. What could that do to... I mean, Chinese New Year effectively, like, China shuts down for, like, what, two weeks or so, right? Yeah. Yeah, right. So there's a rush, there's a rush to get things out, out, out the door onto boats and stuff before that shutdown happens. But if these fees get paused again and because, you know, ships have been kind of taken out of rotation- Or it just happens, right?

Adam Kord: Or not even paused again, the thing would be if it happens. Let's just say if they happen and the level stays as is, right? If you're an operator that's a, a Chinese operator, like a uh, like a COSCO or a Double O, right? You're gonna, you're gonna take a good hard look to see, "Hey, does that trade remain competitive? Do I wanna keep those assets moving?" "How much am I going to service that?" Right? And if they decide to not service that trade, then that pulls away from available capacity, which could push rates up.

So yeah, seeing the global supply chain is, is so fragile, especially when it comes to capacity. Right? Each one of these moves, whether it be for storms that we've talked about or Panama Canal, you know, uh, limiting vessels that can go through or in this case, potentially capacity moving around due to fees, that could have a great impact. So like everything else we'll continue to watch it really close, keep everybody informed, and I'm sure you and I will talk about it, Chris.

Chris Parker: Looking forward to it. We'll see what happens then.  

You are now at our current position. Links to everything we covered today, plus some extra articles of interest, are in the show notes.

And while you're there, check out the events and webinars we flagged for the weeks ahead. Thank you for listening, and we'll see you next week.

Be sure to subscribe to your preferred podcast platform so you don't miss future episodes. To learn more about Expeditors, you can find us on LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, and X, or simply visit us at expeditors.com. Take care, and I'll see you next time!