Labor negotiations are creating new uncertainty for U.S. West Coast cargo flows as the International Longshoremen and Warehouse Union (ILWU) Local 26 and the Pacific Maritime Association work toward an agreement. With key terminals in Los Angeles and Long Beach potentially affected, and cargo already facing rail delays, proactive planning and contingency preparation are becoming increasingly important for shippers heading into the holiday season.

  • 18 min

Current Position | Weekly Briefing November 4th - 10th

The Expeditors Podcast

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You're listening to Current Position, a weekly briefing from Expeditors mapping the shifts across trade compliance, regulatory changes, and global supply chains, plus some market insights from our Senior Vice President of Global Ocean, Adam Kord.

I'm Chris Parker, and here's the latest from November 4th to November 10th.

Global Customs & Trade Market

• U.S. CBP on Nov. 6 issues an interim final rule on requirements for verification of importer status. The notice not only sets requirements for foreign importers of record when clearing goods into the U.S. but also corresponding responsibilities for licensed customs brokers to validate all clients’ importing status. Read more.

• EU low-value import changes are reshaping China–Europe e-commerce flows. A new €2 per-item handling fee on EU-bound low-value parcels went into place beginning Nov. 1. This fee went into place following the end of the de minimis exemption on 1 July. Since then, China/Hong Kong–Europe air volumes are down 17%, with Hong Kong down 32%. Read more.

• The U.S.–China pause on port fees is extended to January 10. Freightos notes that the pause on port fees was extended to January 10 and that Trump and Xi are due to meet next week. The U.S. election result is adding fresh uncertainty to the trade outlook. Read more.

Global Ocean Market

• LA/Long Beach port contract negotiations with ILWU watchmen have extended until Nov. 20. The ILWU Local 26 contract has been extended three times for a few days at a time, most recently through November 20, with no long-term agreement in place. U.S. imports reached 2.37 million TEU in September, and NRF projects 2.05 million TEU for November. Read more.

• Xeneta reports warn of a sharp rate correction in 2027 if capacity outpaces demand. Global spot rates could fall 30% next year versus Q3 2026 levels, with the fleet forecast to grow 6.8% against demand growth of 2.5–4%. Weekly Red Sea capacity reached 467,297 TEU in October, about half the pre-crisis level, and the return to shorter routes released 599,000 TEU this year. Read more.

• Carriers keep pushing Asia–Europe rates while returning capacity to Suez, but spot rates are softening. Premier Alliance is adding two Asia–Mediterranean services to its Suez network in November, and Linerlytica considers the November 1 Asia–Europe increase unlikely to hold. Freightos put Asia–North Europe at $3,422 per FEU, down 5% on the week, and the Mediterranean at $4,324, both well above last year, while transpacific stays elevated at about $8,245 per FEU to the West Coast and $9,708 to the East Coast.

Global Air Market

• Cargo operations at Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport (TPE) remain congested following Typhoon Champi in late October. Large-scale freighter cancellations aren't currently expected to continue, but freighter delays are expected throughout Q4 as terminals clear the residual backlog and manage elevated import and export volumes. Read more.  

• The ASEAN Summit in the Philippines will impact air freight moving in and out of Manila as the government has declared non-working days Nov. 16-18. Shippers can expect longer processing and response times due to reduced Bureau of Customs and port terminal staffing. Read more on slide 11.

• Global air cargo demand holds firm into peak season. WorldACD data show October tonnages up 6% year on year, with worldwide rates up 29% and the spot rate at $3.67 per kg, up 37%. China/Hong Kong–U.S. volumes rose 8% while China/Hong Kong–Europe volumes continued to fall. Read more.

• Freightos reports air rates still climbing from China and across the Atlantic. China–North America air rates rose 3% to about $8.00 per kg, matching last year's mid-December high. China–Europe reached $4.87 per kg, up 23% year on year, while transatlantic rates jumped 33% in a month to $2.90 per kg. Read more. 

Global Ground Transport Market

• U.S. truckload conditions tighten as demand rises. FreightWaves SONAR shows the Tender Volume Index up about 5% week on week to 11,600, with outbound tender rejections at 12.95% and flatbed at 21%. Van spot rates reached $3.49 per mile, and the van contract index hit a 52-week high of $2.85. Read more.

• UK haulage rates have dipped even as diesel nears £2 per litre. The TEG Road Transport Price Index fell 0.42% to 141.0 in October, its first drop since February, as demand fell and vehicle availability rose. Diesel averaged 199.52 pounds per litre, up almost 40% year on year. Read more.

 Up next, Senior Vice President of Global Ocean, Adam Kord.  

The following discussion could include forward-looking statements. Of course, actual results may differ materially because of various risks and uncertainties. We are not obligated to update these statements, and we rarely do so. Instead, we refer you to our most recent SEC filings for more information about the risk factors that could affect our future results.

Chris Parker: Adam, we are now in week 46 of the year, uh, coming close to the end of 2027 here. Um, what has been on your mind lately?

Adam Kord: Week 46, time does fly. Almost done with 2026. And I guess, uh, you know, 2026 is a magic number because today we're gonna be talking about labor and ILWU Local 26. We'll start off with the, the ILWU is the International Longshoremen and Warehouse Union.

So that is, uh, the union of more than 25,000 members that provide the majority of the labor for 29 ports on the United States West Coast. So those are the folks that are the crane operators, the equipment operators, the clerks, just general overall workers. Um, there's a, a subset of them, or a local, specific to Los Angeles, which is ILWU Local 26, and they are the maritime watchmen for that local. So I just mentioned that the ILWU has more than 25,000 members, and ILWU Local 26 has about 250 members.

Chris Parker: Right. I've, I've mentioned them a couple of times in the last couple of briefs that we've done, but sounds like we're gonna be hearing more about this. Um, what's special about them?

Adam Kord: Yeah. So, um, well, I guess I'll start off by, by what they do. So they're the... They're, they're basically security. Uh, what they do is they inspect trucks and employees entering the gates. At certain terminals, they provide terminal security. Um, and it's not because this is specific to a, a local in Los Angeles, Long Beach, they don't provide all the security up and down the terminal. This is just one local. So they provide, though, security for about, um, 85% of the traffic that goes through the Port of Long Beach. And that covers a couple really massive terminals.

Uh, Pacific Container Terminal, also known as PCT, Long Beach Container Terminal, also known as LBCT, and Total Terminals International, TTI. So some really significant terminals in Long Beach, and then one, uh, very large terminal in Los Angeles, which handles about 33% of overall container traffic in Los Angeles, and that's called APM. Um, so the, the reason why they're of, um, concern is they've been operating without a labor contract since July of 2025. So it's been, been quite some time. Now, they have been negotiating in good faith. And, um, remember that the... when we talk about ILWU and their, their labor contracts, uh, they're always negotiating with what's called the PMA, or the Pacific Maritime Association.

So the PMA is the employer, the ILWU is the labor, and the PMA represents ocean, carriers and all of the terminals. So I'd mentioned that they have been negotiating in good faith, continuing to work since July of 2025, but they drew a line in the sand, um, and said that if they did not have a deal done, um, on Wednesday, November 4th, they weren't going to show up to work. They were gonna strike. They're like, "They're done."

Chris Parker: It's been a year. Makes sense.  

Adam Kord: Yeah, it's been a year. And then, you know, this is only 250 members and only cover, uh, you know, a, a handful of the terminals. But the worry was, if Local 26 doesn't show up to work, the ILWU, which operates all of the labor within the terminals would they honor the picket lines? And of course, they would. Yeah. It's their brothers and sisters that are striking.

So the fear is, is that if a deal wasn't done on November 4th, that the terminals, um, you know, these, these major terminals in Los Angeles and Long Beach could, could shut down. Well, what happened? Um, November 4th, for, for those of us, uh, who know, the night before was a very large election where, uh, there was a big change in the US, and we're not gonna talk about that on this podcast, but I'm sure we'll be talking about it sometime soon. Um, but the night, the day after an election, nobody wanted the terminals to shut down. Nobody wanted this to cloud everything. So they extended negotiations officially through November 6th which was on Friday.

And then on Friday night, right up against the deadline, uh, they extended the deadline one more time to November 20th. Um, and there's also further assistance been brought in from the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Services. So the reason why, um, we're all watching this very close is, uh, local traffic has been moving fairly well, um, through Los Angeles/Long Beach, meaning that if you had cargo being unloaded and you were doing a delivery local somewhere to California or a truck directly from, that's been moving fairly, fairly well. Uh, pretty much, uh, delay-free. However, rail traffic through Los Angeles/Long Beach for the past, it's been much... it's been, the past few months, there's been delays. Uh, there's been a tremendous imbalance of equipment. There's been a lot of containers waiting to, to, for the rails to return flat cars in order to get that inbound volume out that hasn't been there.

So, you know, just a month ago, we were seeing delays, you know, upwards of, of 10 days, and then there was a lot of weather, which I' talked about in a past podcast, in Arizona, which delayed it even further. Um, past podcasts, I had talked about, uh, quite a bit of congestion in China, in, in Northern Asia, caused by typhoons. What the carriers did is they brought in sweeper vessels, and they picked up a lot of additional, um, cargo to help clear those backlogs, and a lot of that cargo right now is headed toward Los Angeles/Long Beach. So there's a lot of people in the importing and, and also the exporting community that, that they're, they're not planning for, for massive delays, right? So there's a lot of eyes. There's a lot of folks, especially on the retail side, that are hoping to get some, some inventory to still make the Christmas holiday season.

Uh, there's, there's a lot of things right there. So when you ask me what's on my mind, it's labor. And we're gonna be watching this close. So we're hopeful with the assistance of, you know, the, the, the federal mediators and that the ILWU Local 26 and the PMA are gonna get something resolved. We're hopeful that'll be done on, on the 20th, and then, uh, and then we'll be through.

Chris Parker: What is a, what does a worst-case scenario situation look like here? I mean, we don't wanna think about it ...

Adam Kord: I don't wanna talk about worst-case scenarios, but hey- absolute worst case scenario would be that it comes to November 20th, there is no agreement. ILWU says, uh, Local 26 says they're going on strike. Because these terminals that I mentioned before won't have any security. Um, the ILWU in those terminals says, "I'm going to back my brothers and sisters. So we're gonna close down those terminals." And then the rest of the 29 ports on the West Coast say, "You know what? We're gonna stand in solidarity with our brothers and sisters," and then the entire West Coast of traffic shuts down.

That would be the absolute worst scenario. Uh, best scenario is we get a deal done really soon, and we don't have to worry about this. And we're not talking about ILWU labor again until prior to their contract, which doesn't expire until July 1st, 2028. So we have other... We, we have some time.

Chris Parker: Before the dance has to happen again.

Adam Kord: And then when I... You know, I, I've been having a lot of discussions about labor, so we'll continue to watch this close. Um, but there's, uh, some additional labor on the horizon, too. Uh, ILWU in Canada, they have a contract that expires March 31st of 2027. And things have been rather contentious. So again, we talk about the ILWU. There's an ILWU also that represents Canada, which would be all the terminals in, in Vancouver and all the way up north through, through Prince Rupert. So we're gonna watch that one close. And then the labor on the East Coast of the US, in the Gulf, is the ILA. And they're under contract through September 30th of 2030. So again, a lot of labor on my mind this week, Chris.

Chris Parker: Yeah. What are the conditions up in, uh, for ILWU up in Canada that are leading to a such a contentious environment right now?

Adam Kord: Yeah. There, there's been a lot of issues with regards to hours, overtime, benefits, pay. Um, there's been a lot of weather related delays which cause, uh, a lot of backlogs which led to overtime concerns, just overall expansion of the terminals, um, and just history. You know, uh, history tells us that those negotiations in Canada with the ILWU pretty much, uh, you could say the same thing about history with negotiations with the ILWU on the US West Coast as well. They typically become very contentious, and I hate to say it, but typically always lead to some sort of labor disruption. We'll continue to watch them close.

Chris Parker: And it's hard because, you know, inbound freight is, it's playing catch up already, and, and I imagine schedules have been behind and such.

Adam Kord: Well, and I think in this one, Chris, it's because- you ask me all the time, regardless of the unfortunate disaster or turbulent situation we're talking about, I always talk about planning, planning, and planning. And I think that there's a lot of folks that have been planning, planning, planning, looking at the ILWU master agreement for July 1st of 2028. Or the ILA master agreement for September 30th, 2030-

Chris Parker: And trying to plan around that.

Adam Kord: -Or even the Canadian agreement, but no one was paying attention to ILWU Local 26 of 250 watchmen that have the potential to cause a lot of issues on the West Coast. So let's hope that doesn't happen. We'll continue to keep you informed.

Chris Parker: Yeah. Absolutely. No drop in the water is too small, right? This all ripples out, and the ILWU will support, like you said, their brothers and sisters in this. Um, it's amazing the impact that, uh, 250 watchmen can have on, on the West Coast. I guess for folks then out there, I mean, yes, we could say planning, planning, planning, continue to do so, but, you know, there's gotta be some kind of, like, blank space up until we get to a certain point that you don't know what's going to happen.

Adam Kord: Yeah, and these are really tight deadlines, right? So, I mean, a- and even when this was all kind of sprung on us in the carrier community and everything that, um, there could be a labor disruption, and that was for November 4th. Well, at that time, you know, there's, there's not a lot of diverting or things you could do. So what could you do? Well, I guess if you, if you have options right now, um, maybe set aside some... And you have some hot product, maybe set aside some, some additional budget for air freight worst case scenario, to get goods here' in a hurry. If there was a labor situation, we have no idea how we can predict how, how long it would last. Um, you know, we weren't going to talk about, uh, politics today, but now you've kind of baited me in.

Chris Parker: Sorry!

Adam Kord: Right? And with, with, uh, you know, we'll, we'll, we'll see what happens and see if there was a labor situation. Um, you know, Congress and the House don't turn over until January 1st. But maybe, you know, our current administration is not so much pro-labor. Maybe they would jump in in a hurry and do something. I just don't know. Let's just be hopeful that they get a deal worked out, cargo's smooth, and everybody, uh, gets everything they want over the holiday season.

Chris Parker: Final question here for you then, I mean, that's what's keeping you up. What's helping you sleep a little bit more soundly in, uh, in the world of Ocean?

Adam Kord: I'm not traveling right now, so probably-

Chris Parker: That's good! Your own bed is helping you sleep.

Adam Kord: Exactly. Yeah. Uh, no, we're just, just, you know, um, Expeditors is closing out a really good year. Ocean's had a great second half. We came out with our third quarter numbers, and in a market in the Q3, which was absent of a lot of capacity, you know, the numbers showed, you know, us growing our volume by, by 7% bigger than the market. Our, our partners have done a great job of getting us capacity, and we've been able to support, uh, our existing customers and also bring on a lot of new ones. When, when the business is doing well, that creates opportunities for our employees and, uh, all that makes me a happy guy.

Chris Parker: Great to hear it. Cool. Thank you so much, and, uh, yeah, we'll chat again soon.

Adam Kord: All right. Thanks, Chris.  

You are now at our current position. Links to everything we covered today, plus some extra articles of interest, are in the show notes. And while you're there, check out the events and webinars we flagged for the weeks ahead. Thank you for listening, and we'll see you next week.

Be sure to subscribe to your preferred podcast platform so you don't miss future episodes. To learn more about Expeditors, you can find us on LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, and X, or simply visit us at expeditors.com. Take care, and I'll see you next time!