Welcome to Onyx Strategic Insights’ first Technology Outlook, where you will find our geopolitical and macroeconomic forecasts for the technology industry in the year ahead and long-term considerations. Download the full version here.

2023 is a year of change for industrial policy, the macroeconomic climate, semiconductor supply chains, and in the regulatory sphere for the broader digital economy.  

What we expect for the tech industry in 2023: 

• As consumers shift back to a more traditional balance of goods and services and business capital expenditures slow, tech sector growth will slow in the first half of 2023 and then see a cyclical recovery in late 2023 to early 2024. Over the medium-to-long term, tech spending is supported by long-term drivers, including AI and cloud computing, automation, and emerging mobility trends. 
• Industrial policy implementation and additional export controls will increase competition for market share among the United States, China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan in technology manufacturing, particularly for semiconductors. 
  • Global players, including Japan and the EU, look to compete with the US through sweeping industrial policy packages similar to the US CHIPS and Science Act, Inflation Reduction Act, and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. 
  • The US will continue to focus on implementing the recent, landmark industrial policy. New export controls are likely but limited. 
• Policymakers will likely consider new regulations pushing up compliance costs, particularly in the fields of data privacy and artificial intelligence. 

Impact: 

• Semiconductor manufacturing becomes increasingly regionalized as companies move out of China and into newer markets such as Southeast Asia, Mexico, and India, and expand their operations in existing semiconductor manufacturing markets like the United States over the next 5 years.  
• However, most companies will not see disruptions to their chip supplies as US export controls aimed at China are narrowly tailored to the most advanced chips and manufacturing equipment. 

The long run: 

• US efforts to limit China’s access to advanced semiconductors will successfully slow China’s technological progress over the next 5 to 10 years. China will face significant systemic challenges in establishing domestic manufacturing capabilities for advanced chips, including labor shortages and lack of existing infrastructure which may slow its ability to innovate and develop technologies that rely on very advanced chips, such as AI and certain defense capabilities. 
• Additional US states passing privacy laws will increase pressure on the federal government to pass comprehensive privacy legislation.